Barring radical technological advancements, population and even economic growth may reverse by mid century.
A host of strategies for shrinking cities are clear: greener space, urban agriculture, shared community spaces, cheaper housing, smaller community-based schools, telemedicine and more exist. Less carbon intensive shared resources are possible. But there are psychological, and therefore political, barriers to overcome.
“Each city will have to make a momentous choice between two diametrically opposed paths. They can follow the path of least resistance, remain caught in the globalization trap and face a likely future of progressive decline; or they can build a new, brighter future, based on a localized economy, while using existing emerging technology to remain network with the wider world.”
That’s from urbanist-author Alan Mallach’s 2023 book “Smaller Cities in a Shrinking World: Learning to Thrive Without Growth.”
With zero immigration, the United States will have declining population by 2034, per census projections. The UN expects global population to decline by 2100 for the first time since reliable estimates began. I’ve been interested in this topic, informing a recent story of mine and a longterm-future project I led last year. Mallach’s advice to local leaders: Reduce the dependence on a global world but still participate in it
Below I share my notes for future reference.
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