Who do you think has a higher unemployment rate right now—recent college graduates with a philosophy degree or those with a computer science degree?
Yikes: it’s computer science, per the Federal Reserve Bank. It’s part of a massive change I’ve written about.
Among recent college grads aged 22 to 27 with at least a bachelor’s degree, unemployment looks like this:
- Computer science: 6.1%
- Philosophy: 3.2%
- Nursing: 1.4%
That’s not a typo. Recent computer science grads currently have higher unemployment than those with philosophy degrees.
Now, I’ve already done a video about a bet I made with a friend over the future of software developers, but this points to something much bigger. This chart is important—maybe one of the most interesting in economics right now—and it tells a deeper story.
The green line on this chart shows the unemployment rate for recent college graduates over time, going back to the late 1980s. The blue line represents the overall unemployment rate in the economy.
For decades, the pattern was clear: recent college grads always had lower unemployment than the general workforce—even during recessions. Being a new college graduate meant better job prospects than the average worker.
But something started shifting around 2018. That change came before AI really went mainstream—but it’s only accelerated since the pandemic and the rise of generative AI.
I’ve been a journalist for 15 years. I run a news organization. I’ve spent much of my career tracking tech employment trends. And one mistake I see people make over and over again is falling into what I call the single-cause fallacy—this idea that there’s always one big explanation for what’s going on.
Right now, a lot of people are jumping to say, “It’s artificial intelligence.” And sure, AI is probably part of this story. There’s data and anecdotes that suggest it’s reshaping knowledge work.
But a lot of other things are happening too. We spent years falling behind in producing enough STEM graduates—and then we suddenly caught up. There have been big shifts in international hiring. And money got more expensive.
Here’s one more twist: right now, the unemployment rate for recent grads with journalism degrees is actually lower than those with computer science degrees. That’s not because journalism suddenly became safer from disruption—I can tell you, as a journalist, it’s not. It’s about how the supply of graduates has shifted. Fewer people are entering journalism, so demand and supply look different.
The lesson I’ll be teaching my kids is this: Two qualities matter most in preparing for a changing world—caring deeply about the people you build with and staying curious about whatever you need to learn next.
It won’t always be about picking the “right” degree. It’ll be about how you adapt when the world changes—because it always does.